Imagine it's election night, a week from now, and you're staying up to watch the results roll in. Over two dozen states have been called, but the race is not yet won.
Here's the chart I plan to have up to show how the battleground sits. (It uses JavaScript mouseovers, so I can't include it inline, sorry.)
Remember, this is an imaginary scenario at the moment. Actually I'm hoping to see Obama do much better than this when the real thing comes along :-)
To make sense of any of this you must understand the Electoral College.
Red states are states that went for Bush in 2004
Blue states are states that went for Kerry in 2004
States against a blue background at the top have been called for Obama.
States against a red background at the bottom have been called for McCain.
States inbetween have not been called.
States to the left of the line have gone to Obama or are projected to go for Obama
States to the right of the line have gone to McCain or are projected to go for McCain
The further left or right they extend, the further the (projected) margin of victory
The thicker the bar for a state is, the more electoral votes it has.
The projected winner is the person who takes the state on the finish line.
Once the area for states called for one person or another crosses the finish line, the election as a whole can be called for them.
Hover over a state to see more about it: the (projected) margin of victory, the number of electoral votes it has, its two letter code, and the distance from the finish line with and without that state. Because of the way the chart is laid out, the finish line is a draw (269 EVs) rather than a win (270 EVs).
The projections will be drawn from fivethirtyeight.com. If he updates his during the night, I'll update mine.
Obviously this is an extension of the chart I set out in my previous diary entry, but with two changes: first, the cyan and pink bands at the top and bottom to mark out called states, and second the mouseovers to reduce clutter.